Thursday, December 13, 2007

The "Cloud" is looking ugly

Here are interesting articles about Numenta, from Wired and CNN Money. Very worthwhile.

I´ve been convinced by Drama 2.0 that the web2.0 is now a bubble. Damn it; I'm now bearish.

However, here's my longer-term view. If history is any indication, a timeline of transformation in the information revolution can be nicely broken into decades.

  • 1945. There was, like, this war, somewhere, and some dudes, like, invented these big machines called computers. It was great because they could now kill other guys much more conveniently.
  • 1955. The rise of Business Computing. IBM builds fifty-six SAGE computers at the price of US$30 million each.
  • 1965(-1). IBM, with the System/360 Mainframe, produced approximately 70 % of all computers.
  • 1975. Popular electronics shows up the Altair and wakes Gates, Allen, and the Steves. The Microcomputer revolution is born.
  • 1985(-1). Apple computer launches the Macintosh. The GUI and ease of use and WYSIWYG revolution is born.
  • 1995. Netscape IPO. The Web revolution is born. Everybody but me becomes a billionaire.
  • 2005. YouTube is born, and it epitomizes Web2.0. Also, On September 30th this "Tim O'Reilly" dude writes a piece summarizing his view of Web 2.0.
I'm now very bearish, and I believe a big market crunch is coming. It won't hurt Grandma, because she's not investing in stocks. There are no IPOs out there. It will hurt the VCs and the big players: Google, Facebook, MySpace, Yahoo, and so on. The crunch will suck capital dry. The VCs left standing will be gone to green. If I could advise any of the big players, I'd suggest saving some billions now (Euros, not Dollars). They would thank me later.

But remember this: while everyone thought the web was a fad, quietly, Google was being born and growing profitable. Google's IPO awakened everyone, again.

While I'm thinking we're heading for a very nasty crash in 2008 or 2009; in the longer-term, I think the likes of 2015, we will have serious progress. If history is any guide, perhaps a new revolution is on the way. Here's my guess.
  • 2015. A theory of meaning is complete. The cognitive information-processing revolution is triggered.
Around 8 years now. Who knows? With all due respect to all the smart folks working on these cognitive things, I think that perhaps we might turn out to be one of its drivers.

We have been turning that Rubik's cube, and we want to sneak in the next party.